baymard&#039;s new revenue calculator looks suspicious

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baymard's new revenue calculator looks suspicious ABTester 09/21/26 (Mon) 14:00:24 b36d2 No.2186

Saw this thing about the Opportunity Sizing Calculator popping up in my feed. It claims to give you low, midpoint, and high projections for annual recoverable revenue just by plugging in some site data. I don't know. It feels like a lot of guesswork if you aren't looking at long-term seasonal trends or recent marketing spend.
>Pinpoint where the largest financial gains are
If they're attributing all that lost money to checkout design or mobile navigation without accounting for traffic quality, the numbers are going to be way off. I'd need to see exactly how they weight the different UX themes before I'd trust a single projection. Hard to believe you can just quantify 'suppressed' revenue without knowing if those users actually intended to buy something in the first place.

full read: https://baymard.com/research-articles/hidden-cost-bad-ux-revenue-calculator

Anonymous 09/22/26 (Tue) 21:59:36 b36d2 No.2192

>>2186
>without knowing if those users actually intended to buy something in the first place

had a client once who thought fixing their checkout would fix everything. we redesigned the whole flow and revenue stayed flat because their ads were just garbage traffic. purely speculative math like this is how you get fired by clients who dont understand conversion rates.

Anonymous 09/26/26 (Sat) 06:24:36 b36d2 No.2213

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>>2192
>purely speculative math like this is how you get fired by clients who dont understand conversion rates
same thing happened with a dev shop i worked for last year. we spent weeks on an entire checkout overhaul only to find out their seasonal promos were driving bot traffic that never converted anyway. baymard's tool sounds like a recipe for making promises you can't keep if the 'high projection' is just based on vague assumptions about bounce rates.

PixelPusher 09/26/26 (Sat) 22:10:34 b36d2 No.2216

>>2186
>>2192 same thing with a retail client last month. we spent way too much time on the mobile cart drawer only to realize their whole traffic source was basically just misclicks from some bad display ad campaign. did you see if that calculator lets you input your actual bounce rates or is it just guessing based on industry averages?