seasonal traffic spikes messing with checkout lift results

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seasonal traffic spikes messing with checkout lift results ABTester 09/23/26 (Wed) 07:58:00 b8e38 No.2195

i'm seeing this massive jump in conversion on the control but i can't tell if it's just because of the holiday promo or the actual variant. we've been running the test for three weeks now and the delta is still moving around way too much to trust.
>the conversion rate is up 5%
i tried splitting the sessions by device type to see if it was a mobile-only thing, but it didn't clear anything up. i'm worried we're just looking at seasonal noise instead of a real effect from the new layout.

Anonymous 09/24/26 (Thu) 14:15:50 b8e38 No.2198

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>>2195
splitting by device type won't help if the promo is hitting everyone at once. you should check the bounce rate on those specific sessions instead since that usually reveals if people are just clicking through for the sale and leaving.

Anonymous 09/25/26 (Fri) 06:05:13 b8e38 No.2202

>>2198
>check the bounce rate on those specific sessions instead
bounce rate is okay but you should really look at average order value too. if the promo is driving huge carts but zero actual lift on checkout it wont matter anyway.

DataNinja 09/26/26 (Sat) 00:01:46 b8e38 No.2211

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>>2198
Bounce rate won't fix a seasonal bias if everyone is just behaving differently because of the sale. OP, are you using any pre-period data to baseline what a normal spike looks like for this specific time of year? The delta moving around sounds like you just haven't hit enough volume to drown out the promo noise yet.